PPM ratings are the talk of the music stations

As the latest set of monthly radio ratings come out for the larger markets being measured by the PPM system, the reaction to the changes in trends across the country is becoming more widespread. Many within and outside of the industry are putting blame on the new audience measurement system (devices worn by participants which automatically detect signals and length of time listened compared with writing down stations listened to in a diary). The other school of thought is that this method is “righting a wrong” and the differences may have been the real case all along.

Having been a broadcaster, radio advertiser, and radio ad salesman over the years, along with having worked for a radio research service for a couple years, I’m going to weigh in somewhere in the middle on this one.

Music stations are way up across the country, while talk and news/talk stations have generally dropped. Based on observation, my feeling is that talk (including news and sports) stations may no longer be getting the ratings status they used to enjoy, but probably remain the better buy for advertisers seeking that audience. Even if or as talk stations show a reduced audience in comparison, they remain more aggressively listened to than music stations.

If you are listening for news headlines, an interview, or a live report, chances are that station will have your full attention more often than when music is playing. It is human nature. Talk is less likely to be a background. On the other hand, music stations are often playing while people are talking with each other, working, doing household chores, walking, driving, or some form of activity requiring at least a portion of their attention.

My theory on this goes as follows. When people (participating in the ratings via whichever method) are listening to news, talk, or sports, they are paying close attention, even if for 5 to 15 minutes. The commercials they hear stand a better chance of reaching an attentive listener. But when those same people switch back to a music station, they stop listening as attentively (or aggressively, as I call it) and may sing along to a good song while doing the task at hand.

With a ratings diary, they are/were more apt to remember listening to 15 minutes of news. But they may have written down they listened to ½ hour of music when in fact a radio station playing music within their range might have been on around them for 2 hours. With the PPM measurement, that 15 minutes of aggressive listening to the news counts as a negative toward the news station compared with the 2 hours of the music station on nearby showing up on the PPM measurements.

Los Angeles provides the best example of this point. AMP 97.1 FM dropped its talk format (after its ratings had doubled since the first of THIS year) and went to a Contemporary Top 40 format a few weeks ago to compete with KIIS-FM among others. The just announced May ratings for Los Angeles, using the PPM measurement, show the new AMP 97.1 as 4th overall in the market with ratings well above anything the previous KLSX got in years. KIIS-FM came in at number 1 in the market.

The same ratings report shows all-news (for more than 35 years) KNX-AM at 17th overall, and it easily beat out sister news station KFWB overall. KNX used to be a regular in the top 10 in its target audience during most dayparts. Struggling sports radio KLAC has now doubled its ratings from 1 year ago – when it was still diary measurement.

No, it is not just Los Angeles. Chicago’s WGN Radio, which has ranked no lower than 3rd for something like 25 years under the diary system, now fails to make the Top 10 in some dayparts and is in the process of shuffling its entire morning and midday lineup. It’s afternoon shift changed earlier this year.

I may be one of the few who does understand how the change to PPM measurements are impacting the radio marketplace. But what I don’t understand is how the radio stations that play music continue to focus on “the same 500 songs” and 5 minute and longer commercial clusters all day and all week long. They should be focused on getting the listeners to listen more closely. THAT is when the PPM measurement will make a difference for advertisers.

A Radio Fantasy? League that is...........

It's as though the world of sports has taken over the radio industry over just the past few days. The story of CBS Radio and Clear Channel literally trading some stations sounds like it was concocted at the baseball winter meetings instead of the boardrooms of the two largest radio station ownership groups in the country. And a playlist to be named later.

At almost the same time, two Chicago powerhouse stations were involved in major management changes. The story broke that Bob Shomper has left WGN Radio as Program Director to move literally down the street (less than a mile away, physically) to become PD at news/talk rival WLS-AM. And, presto, WGN brings in Kevin Metheny from Cleveland to replace Shomper.

As an aside, Shomper's timing is impeccable. WLS-AM is enjoying ratings success of late and seems to be holding its own under the PPM audience measurement, which not all talk shows and stations are doing. WGN has seen a dip in its large audience. Some say it is because the Cubs baseball season ended in October, and others say it is a reflection of the PPM system. Others say it is both. Nonetheless, Shomper departs with a dip in overall audience, and within hours of the retirement of morning market leader Spike O'Dell. WGN will be hard pressed to maintain its morning numbers, and Metheny might just be starting under more pressure than one might expect for joining WGN Radio.

Here we are within a matter of days seeing a trade of major market radio stations and a change of Program Directors involving major market stations. In the past, these would be "once in a lifetime" stories, and here they both happen at the same time with less fanfare than many would expect.

Could this be the start of things to come? If so, I'd like to propose starting a "Fantasy League" for radio fans. Just as baseball and football fantasy leagues are rampant as a means to maintain fan interest in games even though we are priced out of the market to attend them in person, maybe a Fantasy Radio League will give some folks a reason to still pay attention to local radio stations.

After all, a CBS + Clear Channel trade is like the Red Sox and Yankees doing a swap. As a fantasy general manager, we could draft the radio markets we think will increase billing the most for 2009, and then draft and trade the stations within that market to maximize the profit potential.

For example, when the NBA Playoffs are about to start, I would draft KLAC Radio because the Lakers post-season games will probably increase their audience. For this week, with the cold and snow storm sweeping the northern part of the country, I would bid for KOA in Denver and WCCO Minneapolis, figuring their audiences will rise as people seek weather coverage. And so it goes.

Some of the radio publications would then start publishing the dates that the leading air personalities' contracts will end so that we can ponder their free agency. If we think that the top rated morning man will change stations next summer, we might not draft his or her station for the year. We'll be seeking rumors and speculation about which stations will be up for trade in the various market clusters.

A format change will be devastating as an injury to a (fantasy) general manager. Many times format changes mean a reduction, if not short term elimination, of commercial time, along with firings. Both of those mean reduced revenue for that station for the short term. Or the long term if the new format is not successful.

Shall we schedule a draft?

3 formats this year - so far - for Jacksonville station

Let me count the ways. Or should I say the format changes. I'm not even going to bother with comments about how by the 10th of November 2 stations in Milwaukee and 2 stations in Boston have already changed over to holiday music.

But Jacksonville Florida's WSJF 105.5 FM takes the cake this year. Last week, this station began their third different format. This year.

As of this writing, WSJF has become progressive talk on weekdays. Yes, after the election is over they made the change. In August of this year, they became on oldies station. That replaced their sports format from way way back to this past spring.

Now I wonder if they'll switch to holiday music for December too.

Meanwhile, for those who missed this, the excellent radio site, LARadio.com, is free for the remainder of November, so take advantage. It goes back to paid subscriptions for much of their material come December 1st, so enjoy it while you can.